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Public Transportation Needs
Ridership Forecasts and Assumptions
The estimate for projected public transportation investment needs is highly dependent on changes in ridership. Several factors underlie the ridership growth projections of this analysis:
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The nation’s population has increased 1.0 percent annually between 2000 and 2005; the United States Census projects a similar level of just below 1 percent per year annual population growth through 2030.
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Public transportation ridership has increased at an average of 2.4 percent annually between since 1995 and 2007, according to APTA.
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When gas prices increased to over $4 per gallon in mid-2008, this brought about a surge in transit ridership. Should the average price per gallon of gasoline again increase to these prices or higher, this can be expected to further increase transit ridership.
The actual pace of future public transportation ridership growth will depend on a number of factors such as fuel prices, housing and commercial development patterns, the relative health of metropolitan areas, and overall economic growth. The level of investment which occurs to preserve the existing system and to provide for expansion will also affect ridership. Projected investment needs were calculated assuming a range of ridership growth assumptions.
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A continued 2.4 percent increase, the average annual growth between 1995 and 2007; and
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A 3.5 percent annual growth, which is a rate that would result in doubling of ridership in 20 years;
The actual pace of future public transportation ridership growth will depend on a number of factors such as fuel prices, housing and commercial development patterns, the relative health of metropolitan areas, and overall economic growth. The level of investment which occurs to preserve the existing system and to provide for expansion will also affect ridership. Projected investment needs were calculated assuming a range of ridership growth assumptions.
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A continued 2.4 percent increase, the average annual growth between 1995 and 2007; and
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A 3.5 percent annual growth, which is a rate that would result in doubling of ridership in 20 years;
Types of Public Transportation Capital Needs
Public transportation capital needs are defined both by the requirements of system preservation and expansion needed to serve an increase in riders. Needs estimates are based on the following components:
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Replacement of bus and rail vehicles as they reach the end of their expected FTA recommended service life;
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Major rehabilitation of bus and rail vehicles (midlife rebuilds) to maintain vehicles in proper and safe condition and to allow the fleet to remain fully usable until the end of its FTA recommended expected service life;
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Elimination of the backlog of vehicle needs to bring the nation’s fleet into a state of good repair;
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Replacement and rehabilitation of other existing public transportation assets, including, but not limited to, bus and rail maintenance and yard facilities, stations, track, signals, switching systems, power generation and distribution facilities, structures, and fare collection and communication systems and other associated capital equipment;
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Expansion of the bus and rail vehicle fleet to accommodate increased ridership demands, provide new services, and reduce crowding on some existing systems; and
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Expansion of other public transportation assets to accommodate increased ridership demands, including the construction of new fixed-guideway public transportation systems to serve high demand corridors.
- Rural public transportation needs have been estimated in a separate analysis, and consist of two major components—the maintenance of the existing system and the expansion of the system to address unmet needs.
Public Transportation Investment Scenarios
Several alternative investment scenarios were analyzed. Presented here are the scenarios which addressed improving both system physical condition and service performance.
Potential Operating Costs
Ridership growth would result in annual growth in operating costs in real terms at the same rate as the respective growth in ridership for each scenario. With a total operating cost of $33.7 billion in 2006, the operating cost would grow gradually over twenty years to $54.2 billion per year at the 2.4 percent growth rate, and to $67.4 billion per year at the 3.5 percent growth rate.
Historical Funding for Public Transportation
According to APTA, operating and capital expenditures from all sources for public transportation in 2006 totaled approximately $47.1 billion, representing an increase of 28 percent since 2001. Capital funding totaled about $13.3 billion in 2006. This represents about one-third to one-fifth of the projected annual investment required to maintain public transportation system physical conditions and service performance at current levels, or about one fourth to one-sixth of the projected investment required to improve physical conditions and service performance.
During this same period, from 2001 to 2006, the Federal share of total capital funding declined from 51 percent in 2001 to 44 to 39 percent in 2004 and 2005. During those same years, the Federal share of total funding was consistently in the range of 16 to 19 percent. Other sources of funding included passenger fares, and local and state funding.
