Summary Bottom Line Report | Full Bottom Line Report
Key Findings
Transportation in America has come to a breaking point. Drivers experience the frustration of congestion and lost hours stuck in traffic. Shippers add extra time to delivery schedules, and then worry if goods will arrive “just in time.” Families bear untold grief at the loss of a son or daughter in a tragic accident. Critics wonder why can’t this be fixed.
The answer is, it can. By investing in America’s transportation system, the nation will not only solve the deficiencies that plague us, but also lay a sound foundation for a revitalized economy equipped to meet a growing and changing society.
Highway Investment Requirements
The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) reports that since the mid 1990s, highway travel in the nation has grown just under 12 percent. After growing from 2.4 trillion vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in 1995 to over 3 trillion VMT in 2007, because of record high fuel prices and the decline of the economy VMT declined to 2.9 trillion by late 2008.
Future highway travel demand will depend on many factors. The U.S. population is expected to grow from 305 million in 2005 to over 420 million by 2050. Freight shipped by truck is expected to nearly double in the next 20 years. Passenger vehicle demand is expected to parallel population growth, which is increasing around one percent per year. Truck freight demand is expected to parallel economic growth, which is expected to increase between two and three percent per year. While VMT grew at over two percent annually during the last two decades, over the next twenty years it is expected to grow between 1.0 percent to 1.4 percent per year as many of the factors that determine VMT stabilize.
To estimate future highway and bridge investment needs, this report projects two scenarios based upon anticipated growth in travel, a 1.4 percent growth rate , and a policy-based 1.0 percent annual growth rate which would be expected to yield significant progress in reducing transportation’s share of greenhouse gas emissions.
At a 1.4 percent growth rate in VMT, annual average investment requirements for highways and bridges total $166 billion. If travel growth is held to a 1.0 percent annual VMT growth rate, the investment requirements come to $132 billion. Both these levels are significantly higher than the $78 billion invested in highway capital improvements by all levels of government in 2006. If highway investment were increased to the levels indicated in either of the “cost to improve” scenarios, drivers would see smoother roads, improved highway speeds, a reduction in delays, fewer congested miles, and reduced cost.
Public Transportation Investment Requirements
The American Public Transportation Association (APTA) reports that since the mid-1990s, public transportation ridership in the nation has grown 32 percent, from 7.8 billion trips annually in 1995 to 10.3 billion trips in 2007.
Future ridership growth will depend on factors such as changes in fuel prices, housing and commercial development patterns, employment growth, the relative health of metropolitan areas where public transportation plays a large role, and overall economic growth. The level of investment provided to maintain the current transit system and the level of investment made in system expansion will also affect potential ridership.
Projected investment needs were calculated for two scenarios:
-
A continued 2.4 percent increase, the average annual growth between 1995 and 2007; and
-
A 3.5 percent annual growth, which would result in doubling of ridership in 20 years, which is a goal that has been adopted by AASHTO’s Board of Directors.
Additional Costs for the Future
- The transportation models used to develop the estimates for highways and transit, shown above, do not currently address all investment requirements. Based on recent research, $13 billion in additional costs have been identified. These include more than $7 billion in environmental mitigation costs; $2.6 billion in highway operations costs; $1.2 billion in safety program costs; and $1.6 billion in highway security costs. APTA has identified capital needs for transit security which were likewise not addressed by the modeling forecasts.
It is our hope that in the future these factors can be incorporated in the cost estimation techniques used by the transportation models. These areas of costs not accounted for in current modeling are detailed in the final section of this report.
